CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-01-29T04:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28848/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M6.8 class flare from AR 13559, best observed in SDO AIA 131. This eruption is also observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 with subsequent field line movement, an EUV wave, and post eruptive arcades following the flare visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Possible arrival/glancing blow signature of arrival of this CME at L1: enhancement in magnetic field components with an increase in B_total from 3.6 nT to over 7 nT, reaching a maximum near 8 nT. Rotation of all three magnetic field components. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 390 km/s to 440 km/s and increases in temperature and density (to ~5nT) were also observed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-01T05:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-31T03:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 25.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2024 Jan 30 1240 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 40130 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Jan 2024, 1239UT SIDC FORECAST Coronal mass ejections: No new Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery. The CME reported yesterday seen in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery at 04:24 UTC on January 29 is expected to miss Earth but a shock could be expected at Earth early on January 31.Lead Time: 41.32 hour(s)
Difference: 26.30 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-01-30T11:59Z
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